Population modelling

Here’s an experimental page.


I have long been interested in modelling the ageing population of the country and eventually I found the data at the Office of National Statistics, the ONS. It is not that I doubted the information was there, it was that this incompetent could not find it. Such an analysis is called age structure. In stats this would be (I expected it to be) called stratification, but it turns out that in this specialist world, stratification means looking at ethnicity. [Ethni City; that large suburb entirely housing people of the same ethnic background, noticeably different from the majority nationwide].

ONS provides the snippet to insert in the webpage, but I don’t see it working. This seems to be because the reference webpage on the ONS site is blank (and faintly pink, like the FT).

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I have checked that the page publishes... the widget seems to take up more screen space than shown (when I click on it I struggle to get back to text like this). Meanwhile I’ll ramble on here in the hope that something ‘fixes itself’.


Notable on the page with the graphic, which shows the population born before 1971, are some steps in the population, sudden jumps in population. Both are immediately following the world wars, an additional 250 thousand immediately after the first and 200 thousand after the second.  Look here for a range of similar products. The page I want to reproduce is this, where really I’d like to do my own (similar) modelling based on the data.

The ONS produces wonderful stuff and it is significant, I think, that such data is freely available. I found, for example, Z2 - Zipped population projections data files, GB and England and Wales, 2014-based (ZIP 2340Kb) Open data for GB, England and Wales 2014-based projections. Single year of age, sex with underlying data. Principal projections to mid-2114. Variants to mid-2039. Coverage: GB Geographical breakdown: Country  with which I shall try to generate some share-able diagrams. Large .xml file, almost 34Mb, that Excel will read.


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http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc219/pyramids/index.html


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http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/sty-2.html


DJS 20151211

Graphic by Office for National Statistics (ONS)



© David Scoins 2017