325 - Covid in December

This is a placeholder for the December page. 

The changing position continues to be unsettling. The lockdown ("Two") imposed on Nov 5th is supposed to stop Dec 2nd. I expect that there will therefore be a surge of cases across the month, with a surge of deaths right on Christmas week. The furlough scheme is planned to run until March and I need to look at understanding the situation around printing money (QE, MMT).

As of mid-Nov we now have two vaccines announced as close to certification. Any making it to market will be in quite fantastic demand – I'm thinking around 20 billion doses wanted, being twice the world population plus wastage, doubling up and repetition. As the vaccines are better understood, so some will be combined for (even) better effect. But it will take all of 2021 and more to move from certification to delivery; we will see unevenness in delivery, inequality between nations and vast sums being made and spent in spreading vaccine to more than the countries which develop them. Whether this will turn into something positive (e.g., exporting the manufacture) or negative (making vast profits) or both, only time will tell. Whether this represents a wholesale change in the way we produce vaccines is also not yet visible.

I'm thinking that the political target of having some sort of normal Christmas will result in Lockdown Three through February, on the basis that it will take at least January to see that the numbers are surging again. My previous description of this being like watching a novice steering a long boat remains apt. However, while we do have the late reaction, the corrections applied only deal with part of the problem; the boating equivalent is having additional drag on just one side of the boat. We also need to recognise what happens in places like Oldham and Darwen, who have been in versions of lockdown for many months and who still have a high prevalence. This says that in those places (not all places are the same) there are features of the society (perhaps multi-generational households) that perpetuate infection. I do not think one size fits all; what works in some places clearly does not work in the same way in others. That this is so says to me that we have strong reasons for localised approaches to reduction of infection. At state level, we need for our governement to not only recognise this (a problem identified) but to act upon the underlying problems. As the next essay says, this is one of the richest coubntries in the world and we have issues of poverty and deprivation; that is simply unacceptable.

DJS      202011xx heading to 202012xx

Related pages:

Essay 291 - Effects of an outbreak  what it says, effects, but some description of what we have (and not)

Essay 293 - Covid-19 charts  charts published daily reflecting concerns and issues.

Essay 295 Long-term Distancing

Coronavirus (Y10+)   modelling problems

Epidemics                  more general theory

Infectious disease      looking at the 2020 problem, particularly effects of the reproduction number changing.

Essay 298 Covid Consequences       surprisingly prescient, considering when it was written.

Essay 299  Covid in April

Essay 300  Covid in May

Essay 303 Covid in June

Essay 304 Covid Disparities           A report on the report, including what it doesn't say.

Essay 305  Risk

Essay 306 Covid in July

Essay 311 Covid in August                 

Essay 316 Covid in September          

Viruses are very small                        Worth reading, I think. (But I would, wouldn't I?)

Essay 317 Covid vs Influenza   

Essay 318 Covid in October                charts updated through November

Essay 322 Covid in November              

Essay 325 Covid in December            This very page

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