363 - Covid in Autumn 2021 | Scoins.net | DJS

363 - Covid in Autumn 2021

Covid in August and September

I for one am not at all happy with the way this is going. To me the risk of long-term covid is significant and scary and signifies a likelihood of quite life-changing damage. The articles in adjacent pieces about the way the devolved nations (not England) behave differently (better, in my head) remain pointed (at, to be read and thought about). As you can see both Scotland and N Ireland are having issues in early September. Meanwhile we are apparently happy at having typically 35000 new cases a day, 7500 (and still rising) in hospital with covid and that deaths are steady at 100 or so per day. Meanwhile in New Zealand, which was still at lockdown 4 on 4Sep, their 7-day average is 39 new cases. Data source. Auckland remains on lockdown level 4 with around 39phut, which you can compare with Corby, the worst in England today at 536phut (while a lot of Scotland is over 700 phut). On cases per million the US and UK are about the same (see) at the moment and it is only the case fatality rate that makes the UK look a little competent. (Bottom of this page and here, setting the metric as case fatality and interval as 7-day rolling average.)



Go to Covid dashboard @ Guardian for the current position













































From the PHE source, covid health data



Here is the prediction of hospital resource used.












Daily infections and testing - and the prediction of how that will change...








Next, observed and predicted mask use (right);  beside, left, social distancing and the prediction.








This last chart perhaps goes some way to explain the UK attitude. Given the difference between policies in Australia and the UK, the fatality rate is, to my mind, the wrong way around. I've left Bulgaria in as a demonstration of, relatively speaking,  failure in health care. Of course, one has to trust what is being reported and this is the big problem in comparisons between states.


Adding to this mid-month, we're about to have an announcement of a policy on vaccinating the 12-15 age group, the new daily cases continues to be over 30,000 and those in hospital is now past 8000. Vaccination rates vary with the denominator; it is the BBC who are using the version I agree with, the possible numbers in the right age-groups. This BBC report explains quite well.  The ONS estimates that in mid-August more than 90% of adults had covid antibodies.  We seem to have stuck at this point, that the last 10% are the anti-vaxxers, for whatever variety of reasons. Identification of those reasons —and therefore how to reduce this number, one each reason is identified, does not appear to be occurring. Reliable information repeatedly expressed is what we need.

DJS 20210913 and 0916

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