383- Covid in 2022 | Scoins.net | DJS

383- Covid in 2022

UnknownI suspect that the UK has declared covid to be, basically, over. I have therefore titled this as if it is and I will retitle the page as necessary. I expect to renew this page several times, up to the moment at which updates to the several reference pages cease being made available.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/  dashboard for the date, 20220102... The link is going to be more up to date than my screen dump.

reference link, for updates on 'variants of concern': https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-routine-variant-data-updatehttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-routine-variant-data-update is the header page  and this is update 13 for the end of 2021; https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018456/Variants_of_Concern_Variant_Data_Update_13__21_09_16.pdf

Go to Covid dashboard @ Guardian  for the current position. Compared to the January page, I have added the (red) reinfection graph.


DJS 20220220 

... with edits and updates done 18th, then ......

I reported on (gov.uk coronavirus site) vaccination take-up for where I live, 2nd Jan. Utterly pathetic: 1st dose 72%, 2nd dose 64%, booster/3rd 43% - that's at MSOA level. At UTLA, which is Blackpool, 80%, 73% and 53%, which is still awful, indicating a whole 20% who haven't taken the first step towards vaccination. I despair at my fellow man. [1]   At February the immediate, MSOA, figures are 73.0%, 65.6% and 47.3%, a very slight improvement while the UTLA figures are 80.7%, 74.7% and 57.3%, again barely shifted. I conclude that those who have so far refused to be vaccinated conclude that they can continue to be in that state, while those who feel safer jabbed have continued to collect their third/booster. I expect, then that the general attitude will become very much as it is for the influenza jab.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-11736-2 is a report on just that, take-up of the 'flu jab. This hovers around 50%, where the ambition was to have it around 75% within at-risk groups The phrase herd immunity applies but was rarely seen (twice) in my read of this. I am not saying that half the population gets jabbed; only that half of those offered the jab (i.e. in the at-risk groups) take it up. Here's a sample (on the right) of the detail available (see the National tab); I read it as  the over 65s responding well at 80% uptake, while the 50-65s not at risk have a 25% uptake, dragging the mean of that age-group down to 38% in the season 21/22 (Sep-Dec 2021). Those between age 3 and age 50 are not offered a jab (except when there are jabs available and unused). I didn't find a count or report of the numbers of jabs purchased. The ambition is to vaccinate the at-risk groups, especially the elderly (me and worse) as there is an obvious correlation between age, flu and hospitalisation due to the severity of the illness.

 I am expecting covid to be added to the list of respiratory diseases we attempt to fight against. That says nothing about long covid, which is what I continue to see as the particular threat. I have often thought that in war there is an argument that injuries are more useful than deaths, because injuries soak up loads of resources of those (enemy) one has caused to be injured. Horrid though the thought is, we spend relatively few resources in coping with the dead. So there is value in spending resources so that we reduce and avoid as much as possible the extensive use of resource that is incurred when we try quite hard to prevent deaths from occurring. Just from an accountant's paper-pushing viewpoint, which I see as quite likely what happens at a state level, we therefore are wise if we find ways to reduce the numbers requiring extensive and expensive treatment. Few states can ever get away with permitting deaths to occur, so we assume that the nation state will try to keep people from dying. Therefore the sensible effort will be directed to reducing those identified as at-risk.  We have seen this close up and personal through 2020 and 2021 and I would like to think that we have learned from this. However, the state of our media is such that I am far from sure that we have learned the same lesson (at all). There yet may be consequences in regulatory terms (such as being required to have various vaccinations to be employed).

Update, 20220502. I added the hospitalisation chart, because I see these figures as alarmingly high and largely unreported. Anything that causes in excess of 10k people to be in hospital should be, one would think, a cause for concern and concerted action. One wonders why we would choose to simply ignore this. Further, bearing in mind that we have learned to expect waves of infection to occur in what we call winter, onwe wonders also how we have allowed this to happem in spring. I rather assume that a spell of warmer weather couple with the Easter holiday will be given as excuse/reason. I also assume that we have a consensus opinion (perhaps originisating in parliament) that we want this to be over, so therefore we simply declare it to be so. Thus we have the herd immunity assumoption that we so abused two years ago. I note that we are no nearer having a decent official sick pay arrangement and we're largely back to the orignial position ("I have a wee cough, can I have a week off?"). Fuss in the press over various large employers actually foollowing gov't guidelines about declaratioins and testing for covid, so that we';re back to presenteeism (where you cannot afford to be off work, so you go in, knowingly likely to infect your colleagues). 

So covid is declared over simply because some of us wish it to be so. Move along, nothing to see here. Given the chronic shortage of money funding all sorts of public services including health and council services, we should therefore expect that long covid will have many reports showing massive underfunding, with only token gestures towards assistance. 

DJS 20220220 

(much actually written on the 18th, but it's too nice a date to not use it)

chart update, 20220315, 20220502, ....

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